War clouds are festooning over Europe.
In August 1914, Sir Edward Grey, the British Foreign Secretary, famously said, “The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime,” announcing the beginning of the Great War.
After losing in 1918, Germany was forced to disarm and pay backbreaking reparations to the Allies under the Versailles Treaty. This planted the seeds of the next war.
In anger over the treaty, Hitler obsessed with Germany’s defeat, stoking public opinion, playing the humiliation of the German volk, incorporating it in his rise to power, marked by enormous illegal rearmament. Territorial demands followed. In 1939, came the invasion of Poland and the start of World War II.
Vladimir Putin is also obsessed--with Russian humiliation by the greatest tragedy of his life: The collapse of the Soviet Union. This low-down KGB blood-soaked thug rose to the pinnacle of power in a country that never enjoyed democratic traditions. A thousand years of authoritarian culture-- Czars, Bolsheviks, and now a pitiless dictatorship.
Putin’s agenda is as clear as a moonlit night on a mountaintop. He craves weakening NATO, perhaps invading a small NATO country like Lithuania, daring the west to challenge him. He wants to expand his empire to enhance his flailing economy. Poles are terrified. Lithuanians, too. They think the United States will not come to their aid if they are attacked. It might not. If Ukraine falls, they are next. Maybe us too.
GOP house members are also obsessed. Their hard right obsesses about impoverished migrants purportedly flooding the country; they want to trade crucial aid to Ukraine as though it were some sick parlor game. House Republicans obsess how they can support an unhinged criminal defendant in his own obsession--staying out of jail.
In 1938, Winston Churchill stood in the House of Commons, presciently obsessing that failure to rearm would lead to war. No one listened. He was a warmonger. Instead, Neville Chamberlain, obsessed with “peace in our time,” naively signed the Munich agreement giving away the Sudetenland; one year to the date before Hitler invaded Poland, starting the bloodiest war in history.
Europe faces a new fascist threat, the murderous Vladimir Putin, beginning to reverse his initial failures in Ukraine. European leaders are panicking. Europe has not rearmed, nor has it mobilized. War is coming without more force to stop a revanchist Russia, with a leader whose Czarist obsessions are both pathological and propelled by his other obsession--being deposed or assassinated.
Germany needs to massively rearm and to possibly institute conscription. France as well. They need to exponentially increase defense expenditures. Some experts think it will take 5 years to reach parity and by then it might be too late. Russia has one thing Ukraine has not. Overwhelming manpower. The same manpower that overwhelmed Hitler’s legions. The same manpower that defeated Napoleon. If Ukraine falls, war will surely come to us.
Any Russian opposition is crushed by an avalanche of propaganda and fear. Navalny murdered. Others tossed out windows, shot, poisoned, wings falling off their airplane. Putin’s agenda is audacious, abetted by perverted congressional politics and Trumpian attention to his own criminality.
Putin sees NATO as a threat to his imperial ambitions. He seeks to destroy the alliance which has preserved the world order since the end of World War II. With Trump’s help that could happen.
The US should immediately pass the aid to Ukraine Bill, which only represents 2-3% of our defense budget. Not likely to happen, but reinstitution of military conscription in the US and in Europe could send a strong signal to Moscow.
This sounds alarmist, but Lenin himself said, “Push forward the bayonet. If you find steel, pull back. If you find soft flesh, push forward.”
Lenin is Putin’s hero. The free world should obsess about that.
