An interesting 26-28

There was a time when I thought the Trump administration had a chance of saving itself. I no longer think that. What I do think is that the president has lost his grip and could be hurling the nation, in his last two years, toward an irredeemable disaster.

The Iran war has been seriously mismanaged. Early on, there was an opportunity to capture Kharg Island and militarily command the Strait of Hormuz. But it would have taken an immediate commitment of ground forces, and neither the political will nor the leadership ability of this president was up to the task. The president would have had to conduct a campaign to educate the public and make the case for war—gradually, convincingly, and with reason. He is surely no FDR. The reasons are there, but this president does not have the ability to make the case. He has other projects in mind rather than geopolitical success, except, perhaps, enriching his global business empire and favoring his corrupt family.

I hope the further economic strangulation of the Iranian hardliners will lead to a more favorable outcome. And I guess, if you look at the early years of any war, there is still hope. After all, the Japanese could have invaded the Hawaiian Islands after Pearl Harbor; they took the Philippines, Hong Kong, and almost all of Southeast Asia. The Germans could have decided not to invade Russia and might possibly have invaded England. Wars depend on more than just good strategy. They depend on smart leadership.

Some argue that the Iranian economy is being destroyed, but we do not know how much pain they can endure in Tehran. If one judges by the war with Saddam Hussein, which lasted eight years and caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands on both sides, I guess a lot. The Iranian mullahs—repressive, totalitarian, and ruthless—are more than a match for the American president’s lack of character, mendacity, spinelessness, and vacillation, and for his band of hapless cronies, all of whom, with perhaps the exception of Marco Rubio, seem equally inadequate. Rubio is keeping a low profile, perhaps out of Machiavellian expediency, maybe getting ready to sabotage JD Vance in 2028.

Vance thinks the country would be better off with more Christian values, a reflection of his recent conversion to Catholicism. That does not play well with many Americans who are now suffering as a result of Trump’s feckless tariff policies and his reinstituted spoils system, which the country was wise enough to replace in the 19th century. Boss Trump has accomplished a partial restoration. And if he had not been reelected by foolish MAGA voters, some of whom may now be suffering buyer’s remorse, he might be in jail, where he surely belongs.

It is going to be an interesting 2026–2028.